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Due to similar engineering and hydrogeological conditions, landslides in the same area often occur in groups under highly correlated rainfall. As a result, predicting shallow landslide instability disasters at the regional scale is of great significance to disaster prevention and mitigation work. This paper suggests a new prediction model, the regional assessment of rainfall induced landslides (RARIL), in which the modified Green-Ampt model is used to analyse rainfall infiltration, the infinite-slope model is used to calculate the safety factor, and the reliability principle is used to consider the parameter uncertainty in regional landslide stability analysis. The model has the advantages of considering the instability mechanism of rainfall-induced shallow landslides, the uncertainty of the slope soil parameters in the area, and high computational efficiency and can be easily implemented in GIS. The case study shows that the RARIL model can accurately predict the landslide disaster caused by heavy rainfall in the region along the 303 provincial Highway K0-K20 section from 11∶00 on August 12, 2010, to 9∶00 on August 14, 2010. Therefore, it has good application prospects in predicting regional landslide instability disasters induced by rainfall.