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Urban expansion is a key driver of change that has been affecting nature’s contributions to people (NCP) in peri-urban regions near metropolitan areas. In southeast Brazil, Campinas Environmental Protected Area (EPA) is a peri-urban, sustainable-use protected area located within the metropolis of Campinas. Campinas EPA provides relevant NCP at the local and regional level, including water provision for 1.2 million people, nature-based tourism and food production. We conducted a participatory, qualitative assessment of past and future trends of NCP at Campinas EPA, in collaboration with the management council of the protected area. We collected data through direct observation, semi-structured interviews and scenario workshops. In our research process, we innovate using the NCP framework, a concept acknowledging multiple values and knowledge systems, coupled with ecosystem services, a concept already understood by management councilors. To assess past trends (2000–2020), we built a causal-loop diagram which depicts an amplifying feedback loop that fosters change towards an urban-dominated state. To assess future trends (2020–2040), we facilitated scenario planning workshops to create and contrast a business-as-usual and a desirable future for NCP, illustrated in the form of artistic panels. We identified a local agroecological farm that represents a seed of good anthropocenes – i.e. the farm is an innovative example of what a positive future could look like, thus providing relevant evidence on how to achieve a desirable scenario. Our findings shed light on how urban expansion within peri-urban areas impacts NCP and suggest strategies for positive transformations.