Case Study for Testing the Validity of NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>-Ozone Algorithmic Climate Change Functions for Optimising Flight Trajectories

oleh: Pratik Rao, Feijia Yin, Volker Grewe, Hiroshi Yamashita, Patrick Jöckel, Sigrun Matthes, Mariano Mertens, Christine Frömming

Format: Article
Diterbitkan: MDPI AG 2022-04-01

Deskripsi

One possibility to reduce the climate impact of aviation is the avoidance of climate-sensitive regions, which is synonymous with climate-optimised flight planning. Those regions can be identified by algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) for nitrogen oxides (NO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mi>x</mi></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>), water vapour (H<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>2</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>O) as well as contrail cirrus, which provide a measure of climate effects associated with corresponding emissions. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of reducing the aviation-induced climate impact via ozone (O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>) formation (resulting from NO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mi>x</mi></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> emissions), when solely using O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> aCCFs for the aircraft trajectory optimisation strategy. The effectiveness of such a strategy and the associated potential mitigation of climate effects is explored by using the chemistry–climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy) with various submodels. A summer and winter day, characterised by a large spatial variability of the O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> aCCFs, are selected. A one-day air traffic simulation is performed in the European airspace on those selected days to obtain both cost-optimised and climate-optimised aircraft trajectories, which more specifically minimised a NO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mi>x</mi></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>-induced climate effect of O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> (O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> aCCFs). The air traffic is laterally and vertically re-routed separately to enable an evaluation of the influences of the horizontal and vertical pattern of O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> aCCFs. The resulting aviation NO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mi>x</mi></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> emissions are then released in an atmospheric chemistry–climate simulation to simulate the contribution of these NO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mi>x</mi></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> emissions to atmospheric O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> and the resulting O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> change. Within this study, we use O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>-RF as a proxy for climate impact. The results confirm that the climate-optimised flights lead to lower O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>-RF compared to the cost-optimised flights, although the aCCFs cannot reproduce all aspects of the significant impact of the synoptic situation on the transport of emitted NO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mi>x</mi></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>. Overall, the climate impact is higher for the selected summer day than for the selected winter day. Lateral re-routing shows a greater potential to reduce climate impact compared to vertical re-routing for the chosen flight altitude. We find that while applying the O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> aCCFs in trajectory optimisation can reduce the climate impact, there are certain discrepancies in the prediction of O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> impact from aviation NO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mi>x</mi></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> emissions, as seen for the summer day. Although the O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> aCCFs concept is a rough simplification in estimating the climate impact of a local NO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mi>x</mi></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> emission, it enables a reasonable first estimate. Further research is required to better describe the O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> aCCFs allowing an improved estimate in the Average Temperature Response (ATR) of O<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>3</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> from aviation NO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mi>x</mi></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> emissions. A general improvement in the scientific understanding of non-CO<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mrow></mrow><mn>2</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> aviation effects could make climate-optimised flight planning practically feasible.