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BackgroundTo reduce healthcare costs, it has become increasingly important to shorten the length of stay in acute stroke units. The goal of this study was to develop and externally validate a decision tree model applicable < 48 h poststroke for discharge home from an acute stroke unit with a short length of stay, and to assess the inappropriate home discharge rate.MethodsA prospective study including two samples of stroke patients admitted to an acute stroke unit. The outcome was discharge home (yes/no). A classification and regression tree analysis was performed in Sample 1. The model's performance was tested in Sample 2.ResultsIn total, 953 patients were included. The final decision tree included the patients' activities of daily living (ADL) performance <48 h poststroke, including motor function, cognition, and communication, and had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.76, 0.91). External validation resulted in an AUC of 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.72, 0.77). None of the patients discharged home were re-admitted < 2 months after discharge to a hospital or admitted to a rehabilitation center for symptoms that had needed inpatient neurorehabilitation.ConclusionsThe developed decision tree shows acceptable external validity in predicting discharge home in a heterogeneous sample of stroke patients, only based on the patient's actual ADL performance <48 h poststroke. Importantly, discharge was safe, i.e., no re-hospitalization was registered. The tree's application to speed up discharge planning should now be further evaluated.