Response to Climate Change and GAP Analysis of <i>Thuja koraiensis</i> Nakai

oleh: Xiuhua Yang, Xiaoyu Li, Jiaqi Cui, Ruiqi Liu, Jitong Li, Chengjun Yang

Format: Article
Diterbitkan: MDPI AG 2024-06-01

Deskripsi

Due to global warming and increased human activity, the wild population of <i>Thuja koraiensis</i> Nakai (<i>T. koraiensis</i>) has dropped, placing it in danger. An understanding of the response of <i>T. koraiensis</i> to climate change and the determination of priority conservation areas are tremendously critical for proper conservation. Using sixty-nine <i>T. koraiensis</i> distribution points and seven environmental factors, the Maxent model was used to predict potentially suitable areas and spatial variation patterns of <i>T. koraiensis</i> and the Marxan conservation planning model was used to evaluate conservation gap areas. Research shows that the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of potentially suitable areas for <i>T. koraiensis</i> included elevation, precipitation of the driest month, isothermality and precipitation of the wettest quarter. Under the current climatic conditions, highly suitable areas for <i>T. koraiensis</i> are mainly distributed in the Changbai Mountains within Samjiyon County and Baishan City, the Hamgyong Mountains within the western part of Hamgyong-Bukto Province, and the T’aeback-Sanmaek Mountains within Gangwon-do, Kumgangsan Special Administrative Region and Kangwon-do. Under future climate conditions, suitable areas for <i>T. koraiensis</i> show a decreasing trend, and the suitable area will be reduced to higher elevations, and the Hamgyong Mountains may become a refuge. Based on GAP analysis, 69.69% of the priority conservation areas of <i>T. koraiensis</i> are located outside of the nature reserve, and these conservation gap areas are primarily in the southern part of the Changbai Mountains and Kangwon-do.