Integrated assessment of flood and drought hazards for current and future climate in a tributary of the Mekong river basin

oleh: Jessica Penny, Dibesh Khadka, Mukand Babel, Priscila Alves, Slobodan Djordjević, Albert S. Chen, Ho Huu Loc

Format: Article
Diterbitkan: IWA Publishing 2023-12-01

Deskripsi

Projecting floods and droughts characteristics under climate change is important to formulate an integrative management plan and enhance resiliency of society. However, studies that provide the integration of floods-drought hazards are scarce within literature. This study assessed flood and drought hazards separately and together for future climate in the Mun River basin, a tributary of the Mekong river. A non-modelling and multi-variate approach was used to assess flood and drought hazard respectively. Climate model ensemble suggests that the area under ‘high’ and ‘very high’ drought hazard level will increase from 27% and 4% during baseline period (1981–2010) to 43% and 37%, respectively, during near-future period (2021–2050). Similarly, an increase in ‘high’ and ‘very high’ flood hazard from 11% and 22% during baseline period to 16% and 24% during near-future period is projected. When both hazards are considered together, the total hazard is projected to increase by 155% in the near-future period. 76% of the catchment during the near future period will have combined hazard level from ‘medium’ to ‘very high’ compared to the 30% during the baseline period. The research presents a grim outlook on for the basin, with the area at risk from both hydro-meteorological hazards. HIGHLIGHTS Individual and combined flood and drought hazard assessment for the near-future period.; Non-modelling approach for flood and a multi-variate approach for drought hazards used.; Area under high and very high drought hazards up from 30 to 80% in the near future.; Area under high and very high flood hazards up from 33 to 40% in the near future.; Area under the combined hazard projected to increase by 155% across the catchment.;