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The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics—how and why?
oleh: Peter Aaby, Kristien Verdonck, Sameh Al-Awlaqi, Gerald Bloom, Por Ir, Kefilath Bello, Jean-Paul Dossou, Remco van de Pas, Wim Van Damme, Ritwik Dahake, Brecht Ingelbeen, Edwin Wouters, Guido Vanham, Stefaan Van der Borght, Devadasan Narayanan, Ian Van Engelgem, Mohamed Ali Ag Ahmed, Vincent De Brouwere, Helmut Kloos, Andreas Kalk, Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum, Placide Mbala, Steve Ahuka-Mundeke, Yibeltal Assefa
| Format: | Article |
|---|---|
| Diterbitkan: | BMJ Publishing Group 2020-07-01 |
Deskripsi
It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little described, analysed or understood. In only a few months, an enormous amount of scientific evidence on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 has been uncovered (knowns). But important knowledge gaps remain (unknowns). Learning from the variety of ways the COVID-19 epidemic is unfolding across the globe can potentially contribute to solving the COVID-19 puzzle. This paper tries to make sense of this variability—by exploring the important role that context plays in these different COVID-19 epidemics; by comparing COVID-19 epidemics with other respiratory diseases, including other coronaviruses that circulate continuously; and by highlighting the critical unknowns and uncertainties that remain. These unknowns and uncertainties require a deeper understanding of the variable trajectories of COVID-19. Unravelling them will be important for discerning potential future scenarios, such as the first wave in virgin territories still untouched by COVID-19 and for future waves elsewhere.