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Can spatial statistical river temperature models be transferred between catchments?
oleh: F. L. Jackson, F. L. Jackson, R. J. Fryer, D. M. Hannah, I. A. Malcolm
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | Copernicus Publications 2017-09-01 |
Deskripsi
There has been increasing use of spatial statistical models to understand and predict river temperature (<i>T</i><sub>w</sub>) from landscape covariates. However, it is not financially or logistically feasible to monitor all rivers and the transferability of such models has not been explored. This paper uses <i>T</i><sub>w</sub> data from four river catchments collected in August 2015 to assess how well spatial regression models predict the maximum 7-day rolling mean of daily maximum <i>T</i><sub>w</sub> (<i>T</i><sub>w<sub>max</sub></sub>) within and between catchments. Models were fitted for each catchment separately using (1) landscape covariates only (LS models) and (2) landscape covariates and an air temperature (<i>T</i><sub>a</sub>) metric (LS_<i>T</i><sub>a</sub> models). All the LS models included upstream catchment area and three included a river network smoother (RNS) that accounted for unexplained spatial structure. The LS models transferred reasonably to other catchments, at least when predicting relative levels of <i>T</i><sub>w<sub>max</sub></sub>. However, the predictions were biased when mean <i>T</i><sub>w<sub>max</sub></sub> differed between catchments. The RNS was needed to characterise and predict finer-scale spatially correlated variation. Because the RNS was unique to each catchment and thus non-transferable, predictions were better within catchments than between catchments. A single model fitted to all catchments found no interactions between the landscape covariates and catchment, suggesting that the landscape relationships were transferable. The LS_<i>T</i><sub>a</sub> models transferred less well, with particularly poor performance when the relationship with the <i>T</i><sub>a</sub> metric was physically implausible or required extrapolation outside the range of the data. A single model fitted to all catchments found catchment-specific relationships between <i>T</i><sub>w<sub>max</sub></sub> and the <i>T</i><sub>a</sub> metric, indicating that the <i>T</i><sub>a</sub> metric was not transferable. These findings improve our understanding of the transferability of spatial statistical river temperature models and provide a foundation for developing new approaches for predicting <i>T</i><sub>w</sub> at unmonitored locations across multiple catchments and larger spatial scales.