Impact Of Exchange Rate To Vietnam Trade Balance In Short Term And Long Term

oleh: Nguyễn Văn Phúc, Phạm Thị Tuyết Trinh

Format: Article
Diterbitkan: TẠP CHÍ KHOA HỌC ĐẠI HỌC MỞ THÀNH PHỐ HỒ CHÍ MINH 2020-10-01

Deskripsi

This article measures the impact of exchange rate on Vietnamtrade balance in the shortand long term during the period of 2000-2010.Correlation analysisbased on the approach ofautoregressivedistributedlag method has been usedto measurelong-term effects. This analysis indicates that the trade balance has been enhancedasVietnam Dong(VND) depreciated.Error CorrectionModelbased on thelong-termbalance equationis usedto measure short-term effects, which suggests thatthe trade balance deterioratedas soon as VND depreciated.Impulseresponsefunctionbased on theerror correction modelindicates that VietnamDong’sdevaluation to thetrade balance behaved like J shape: The trade balancedeterioratesin three quartersafter thedevaluation, it commences to beimprovedfromthe 4th quarterand seta newequilibrium pointafter12quarters.