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This article analyzed the wheat yield variabilities and water footprints under projected future climate based on wheat yield sensitivity to past (1980−2017) trends of maximum temperature (T_max), minimum temperature (T_min), solar radiation (R_n) and rainfall (P) for the semi-arid condition of Punjab, Pakistan. The past and projected future trends of the climate variables were identical featuring prominent T_min rise than T_max accompanied by R_n and P declines. Based on the past influences and the projected future trends of the climate variables, T_min was the principal driver of wheat yield decline followed by the T_max, P and R_n. Wheat evapotranspiration and net irrigation water requirement declined due to the influence of both decrease of growing season length and R_n for the first half of 21st-century, and this trend reversed during the second half of 21st-century. These phenomena were caused by different degree of climate warming between the two-time slices. Due to future wheat yield decline and a gradual rise in green water scarcity the blue and grey water footprints rise consistently particularly during 2nd-time slices. CO₂ enrichment showed limited mitigation potential of nullifying the warming-induced threats on future wheat yield and water footprints.