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<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Poor control of type 2 diabetes results in substantial long-term consequences. Studies of new diabetes treatments are rarely designed to assess mortality, complication rates and costs. We sought to estimate the long-term consequences of liraglutide and rosiglitazone both added to glimepiride.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To estimate long-term clinical and economic consequences, we used the CORE diabetes model, a validated cohort model that uses epidemiologic data from long-term clinical trials to simulate morbidity, mortality and costs of diabetes. Clinical data were extracted from the LEAD-1 trial evaluating two doses (1.2 mg and 1.8 mg) of a once daily GLP-1 analog liraglutide, or rosiglitazone 4 mg, on a background of glimepiride in type 2 diabetes. CORE was calibrated to the LEAD-1 baseline patient characteristics. Survival, cumulative incidence of cardiovascular, ocular and renal events and healthcare costs were estimated over three periods: 10, 20 and 30 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a hypothetical cohort of 5000 patients per treatment followed for 30 years, liraglutide 1.2 mg and 1.8 mg had higher survival rates compared to the group treated with rosiglitazone (15.0% and 16.0% vs. 12.6% after 30 years), and fewer cardiovascular, renal, and ocular events. Cardiovascular death rates after 30 years were 69.7%, 68.4% and 72.5%, for liraglutide 1.2 mg, 1.8 mg, and rosiglitazone, respectively. First and recurrent amputations were lower in the rosiglitazone group, probably due to a 'survival paradox' in the liraglutide arms (number of events: 565, 529, and 507, respectively). Overall cumulative costs per patient, were lower in both liraglutide groups compared to rosiglitazone (US$38,963, $39,239, and $40,401 for liraglutide 1.2 mg, 1.8 mg, and rosiglitazone, respectively), mainly driven by the costs of cardiovascular events in all groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Using data from LEAD-1 and epidemiologic evidence from the CORE diabetes model, projected rates of mortality, diabetes complications and healthcare costs over the long term favor liraglutide plus glimepiride over rosiglitazone plus glimepiride.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>LEAD-1 NCT00318422; LEAD-2 NCT00318461; LEAD-3 NCT 00294723; LEAD-4 NCT00333151; LEAD-5 NCT00331851; LEAD-6 NCT00518882.</p>