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An accurate assessment of the stocking rate is crucial for maintaining the stable function and the sustainable use of the alpine grassland ecosystem. A new scenario design method to evaluate the reasonable stocking rate is presented in the current work. First, climate change is quantified by potential net primary productivity (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>NPP</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">p</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) and measured by adopting the Zhou Guangsheng model, and the NPP generated by anthropogenic activities (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>NPP</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">h</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) is estimated by the distinction between <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>NPP</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">p</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> and actual NPP (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>NPP</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) calculated with the application of the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model. Second, using the <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>NPP</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">h</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> and actual grassland productivity consumed by livestock (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>NPP</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>ac</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>), the reasonable stocking rate is obtained. Finally, the driving factors of NPP change in alpine grassland and the reasonable stocking rate are clarified in Qinghai Province during 2005–2018. The results reveal that the temperature of alpine grassland in Qinghai Province has a slight upward trend from 2005 to 2018, and precipitation displays a downward trend. The overall <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>NPP</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">p</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> of alpine grassland demonstrated a downward trend, and precipitation is regarded as the major influencing factor. In addition, the overall <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>NPP</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">h</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> of alpine grassland exhibited a downward trend. The <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>NPP</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> demonstrated an overall upward trend, where 58.32% of the regional <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>NPP</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> is in a state of growth, and 41.68% of the regional <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>NPP</mi></mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">a</mi></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> is in a state of degradation. According to contribution analysis, anthropogenic activities provided the primary driving factor to promote the restoration of alpine grassland in Qinghai Province. Moreover, the stocking rate must be reduced in 60.77% of the alpine grasslands in Qinghai Province, mostly situated in the eastern and southwestern parts of Qinghai Province, and the other areas must not increase future stocking rates. The current study can theoretically and technically support the construction of Qinghai as the green organic agricultural and livestock product demonstration province and the creation of an ecological civilization highland.