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<i>Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley</i> is a pest that poses a significant threat to agricultural crops, especially cotton, and is now widely distributed across many regions worldwide. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis on the collected experimental data and found that within the suitable temperature range, the survival rate of <i>P. solenopsis</i> increases with rising temperatures, indicating that climate plays a decisive role in its distribution. Using the MaxEnt model this study predicted that under three future climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5), the distribution of <i>P. solenopsis</i> will expand and move towards higher latitudes. Climate change is the primary factor influencing changes in pest distribution. We conducted a meta-analysis of <i>P. solenopsis</i>, including seven independent studies covering 221 observation results, and examined the impact of temperature ranging from 18 °C to 39 °C on the developmental cycle of <i>P. solenopsis</i>. As the temperature rises, the development cycle of <i>P. solenopsis</i> gradually decreases. Additionally, by combining the MaxEnt model, we predicted the current and potential future distribution range of <i>P. solenopsis</i>. The results show that under future climate warming, the distribution area of <i>P. solenopsis</i> in China will expand. This research provides a theoretical basis for early monitoring and control of this pest’s occurrence and spread. Therefore, the predictive results of this study will provide important information for managers in monitoring <i>P. solenopsis</i> and help them formulate relevant control strategies.