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Open Markov Chain Scheme Models Fed by Second Order Stationary and Non Stationary Processes
oleh: Manuel L. Esquível, Gracinda R. Guerreiro, José M. Fernandes
| Format: | Article |
|---|---|
| Diterbitkan: | Instituto Nacional de Estatística | Statistics Portugal 2017-04-01 |
Deskripsi
We introduce a schematic formalism for the time evolution of a random open population divided into classes. With a Markov chain model, allowing for population entrances, we consider the flow of incoming members modeled by a time series - either ARIMA for the number of new incomings or SARMA for the residuals of a deterministic sigmoid type trend - and we detail the time series structure of the elements in each class. A practical application to real data from a credit portfolio is presented.