Simulated radiative forcing from contrails and contrail cirrus

oleh: C.-C. Chen, A. Gettelman

Format: Article
Diterbitkan: Copernicus Publications 2013-12-01

Deskripsi

A comprehensive general circulation model including ice supersaturation is used to estimate the climate impact of aviation induced contrails. The model uses a realistic aviation emissions inventory for 2006 to initiate contrails, and allows them to evolve consistently with the model hydrologic cycle. <br><br> The radiative forcing from linear contrails is very sensitive to the diurnal cycle. For linear contrails, including the diurnal cycle of air traffic reduces the estimated radiative forcing by 29%, and for contrail cirrus estimates, the radiative forcing is reduced by 25%. Estimated global radiative forcing from linear contrails is 0.0031 ± 0.0005 Wm<sup>−2</sup>. The linear contrail radiative forcing is found to exhibit a strong diurnal cycle. The contrail cirrus radiative forcing is less sensitive to the diurnal cycle of flights. The estimated global radiative forcing from contrail cirrus is 0.013 ± 0.01 Wm<sup>−2</sup>. Over regions with the highest air traffic, the regional effect can be as large as 1 Wm<sup>−2</sup>.