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Mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) are gaining popularity in recent years due to their flexibility, the proliferation of smart computing devices, and developments in wireless communications. Due to the mobile nature of the network, creating reliable clusters that can sustain for long period of time is a challenging problem. In this paper, we use probabilistic analysis to guide our clustering algorithm towards more reliable clusters. We also use scatter search to perform clustering while considering various performance metrics. Experiment results show that our clustering approach produces more reliable clusters than prior approaches.