Find in Library
Search millions of books, articles, and more
Indexed Open Access Databases
Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study
oleh: Zhiqi Zeng, Tong Wu, Zhijie Lin, Lei Luo, Zhengshi Lin, Wenda Guan, Jingyi Liang, Minfei Yu, Peikun Guan, Wei He, Zige Liu, Guibin Lu, Peifang Xie, Canxiong Chen, Eric H. Y. Lau, Zifeng Yang, Chitin Hon, Jianxing He
Format: | Article |
---|---|
Diterbitkan: | Nature Portfolio 2022-12-01 |
Deskripsi
Abstract China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (R t ) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants.