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A Bayesian joint probability post-processor for reducing errors and quantifying uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions
oleh: P. Pokhrel, D. E. Robertson, Q. J. Wang
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | Copernicus Publications 2013-02-01 |
Deskripsi
Hydrologic model predictions are often biased and subject to heteroscedastic errors originating from various sources including data, model structure and parameter calibration. Statistical post-processors are applied to reduce such errors and quantify uncertainty in the predictions. In this study, we investigate the use of a statistical post-processor based on the Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modelling approach to reduce errors and quantify uncertainty in streamflow predictions generated from a monthly water balance model. The BJP post-processor reduces errors through elimination of systematic bias and through transient errors updating. It uses a parametric transformation to normalize data and stabilize variance and allows for parameter uncertainty in the post-processor. We apply the BJP post-processor to 18 catchments located in eastern Australia and demonstrate its effectiveness in reducing prediction errors and quantifying prediction uncertainty.