Stochastic Chain-Ladder Reserving with Modeled General Inflation

oleh: Massimo De Felice, Franco Moriconi

Format: Article
Diterbitkan: MDPI AG 2023-12-01

Deskripsi

We consider two possible approaches to the problem of incorporating explicit general (i.e., economic) inflation in the non-life claims reserve estimates and the corresponding reserve SCR, defined—as in Solvency II—under the one-year view. What we call the <i>actuarial approach</i> provides a simplified solution to the problem, obtained under the assumption of deterministic interest rates and absence of inflation risk premia. The <i>market approach</i> seeks to eliminate these shortcomings by combining a stochastic claims reserving model with a stochastic market model for nominal and real interest rates. The problem is studied in details referring to the stochastic chain-ladder provided by the Over-dispersed Poisson model. The application of the two approaches is illustrated by a worked example based on market data.