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Predicting Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of the <i>Schistosoma</i> Intermediate Host <i>Oncomelania hupensis</i> in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China
oleh: Yimiao Li, Mingjia Guo, Jie Jiang, Renlong Dai, Ansa Rebi, Zixuan Shi, Aoping Mao, Jingming Zheng, Jinxing Zhou
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | MDPI AG 2024-06-01 |
Deskripsi
<i>Oncomelania hupensis</i> is the exclusive intermediary host of <i>Schistosoma japonicum</i> in China. The alteration of <i>O. hupensis</i> habitat and population distribution directly affects the safety of millions of individuals residing in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) and the ecological stability of Yangtze River Basin. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the influence of climate change on the distribution of <i>O. hupensis</i> in order to achieve accurate control over its population. This study utilized the MaxEnt model to forecast possible snail habitats by utilizing snail distribution data obtained from historical literature. The following outcomes were achieved: The primary ecological factors influencing the distribution of <i>O. hupensis</i> are elevation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and precipitation of wettest month. Furthermore, future climate scenarios indicate a decrease in the distribution area and a northward shift of the distribution center for <i>O. hupensis</i>; specifically, those in the upstream will move northeast, while those in the midstream and downstream will move northwest. These changes in suitable habitat area, the average migration distance of distribution centers across different climate scenarios, time periods, and sub-basins within the YREB, result in uncertainty. This study offers theoretical justification for the prevention and control of <i>O. hupensis</i> along the YREB.