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<i>Tapiscia sinensis</i> Oliv. (<i>T. sinensis</i>), known as the Yingjiao tree, belongs to the <i>Staphyleaceae</i> family. It is a deciduous tree species endemic to China and represents an ancient species from the Tertiary glacial relics, possessing significant ecological and economic value. This study is based on 154 effective distribution points of <i>T. sinensis</i> in China and 12 environmental factors. Using integrated modeling and ArcGIS software (v10.8), the potential geographic distribution of <i>T. sinensis</i> under climate change was predicted to assess its future impact on distribution and ecological niche. Additionally, on-site surveys were conducted to compare the characteristics of <i>T. sinensis</i> forest communities across different habitability zones. The study also proposes conservation strategies based on the influence of climate change on the distribution of <i>T. sinensis</i> and the characteristics of its forest communities. The results indicate that (1) the current highly suitable areas for <i>T. sinensis</i> are primarily located in the municipal regions where Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces meet, covering an area of 20.44 × 10⁴ km². (2) In three suitable community categories, <i>T. sinensis</i> is consistently a subdominant species, with the community in moderately suitable areas being the most diverse and exhibiting higher stability and evenness. (3) Under future climate change scenarios, the potential distribution area for <i>T. sinensis</i> will gradually decrease with rising temperatures. It will shift toward northern higher latitude regions, with the degree of ecological niche migration also increasing. (4) Conservation measures for <i>T. sinensis</i> primarily involve in situ and ex situ protection approaches. These results provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management and resource conservation of <i>T. sinensis</i>.