Heterogeneous epidemic modelling within an enclosed space and corresponding Bayesian estimation

oleh: Conghua Wen, Junwei Wei, Zheng Feei Ma, Mu He, Shi Zhao, Jiayu Ji, Daihai He

Format: Article
Diterbitkan: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2022-06-01

Deskripsi

Since March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period. This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides the incubation period into infectious and non-infectious and employs the Bayesian framework to model the ‘Diamond Princess’ enclosed space incident. The heterogeneity includes two different identities, two transmission methods, two different-size rooms, and six transmission stages. This model is also applicable to similar mixed structures, including closed schools, hospitals, and communities. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, our mathematical modeling can provide management insights to the governments and policymakers on how the COVID-19 disease has spread and what prevention strategies still need to be taken.