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The pine tortoise scale, <i>Toumeyella parvicornis</i>, is an insect native to the Nearctic region that is able to infest several <i>Pinus</i> species. It can cause weakening, defoliation and, at high infestation levels, tree death. After its first report in Italy in 2015, the pest spread rapidly over the surrounding areas and was reported in France in 2021. Due to the threat that this pest poses to pine trees, the suitability of European Mediterranean basin areas for <i>T. parvicornis</i> at different spatial scales was estimated by constructing species distribution models (SDMs) using bioclimatic variables. Our results showed that several coastal areas of the Mediterranean basin area could be suitable for <i>T. parvicornis</i>. Based on performance assessment, all the SDMs tested provided a good representation of the suitability of European Mediterranean non-native area for <i>T. parvicornis</i> at different spatial scales. In particular, most of the areas with a medium or high level of suitability corresponded to the geographical range of distribution of different <i>Pinus</i> spp. in Europe. Predicting the suitability of European Mediterranean areas for <i>T. parvicornis</i> provides a fundamental tool for early detection and management of the spread of this pest in Europe.