Global scenarios of anthropogenic mercury emissions

oleh: F. M. Brocza, F. M. Brocza, P. Rafaj, R. Sander, F. Wagner, J. M. Jones

Format: Article
Diterbitkan: Copernicus Publications 2024-06-01

Deskripsi

<p>Anthropogenic mercury (<span class="inline-formula">Hg</span>) emissions to the atmosphere are a long-lived hazard to human and environmental health. The UN Minamata Convention on Mercury is seeking to lower anthropogenic mercury emissions through a mix of policies from banning certain <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> uses to reducing unintentional <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> release from different activities. In addition to independent <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> policy, strategies to mitigate greenhouse gases, particulate matter (PM) and <span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span> may also lower <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> emissions as a co-benefit. This study uses the Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model to examine the effect of different clean air and climate policies on future global <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> emissions. The baseline scenario assumes current trends for energy use and <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> emissions as well as current legislation for clean air, mercury and climate policy. In addition, we explore the impact of the Minamata Convention, the co-benefits of climate and stringent air pollution policies, and maximum feasible reduction measures for <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span>. <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> emission projections until 2050 show noticeable reductions in combustion sectors for all scenarios due to a decrease in global fossil fuel and traditional biomass use, leading to emission reductions of 33 % at baseline and up to 90 % when combining stringent climate controls and the most efficient <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> controls. Cement and non-ferrous metal emissions increase in all scenarios with current air pollution policy but could be reduced by up to 72 % and 46 %, respectively, in 2050 with stringent <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span>-specific measures. Other emissions (including waste) are a significant source of uncertainty in this study, and their projections range between a 22 % increase and a 54 % decrease in 2050, depending on both climate and clean air policy. The largest absolute reduction potential for <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> abatement but also the largest uncertainties regarding absolute emissions lie in small-scale and artisanal gold production, where abatement measures could eliminate annual <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> emissions in the range of 601–1371 <span class="inline-formula">t</span> (95 % confidence interval), although the uncertainties in the estimate are so high that they might eclipse reduction efforts in all other sectors. In total, 90 % of <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> emissions are covered by provisions of the Minamata Convention. Overall, the findings emphasize the necessity to implement targeted <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> control policies in addition to stringent climate, PM and <span class="inline-formula">SO<sub>2</sub></span> policies to achieve significant reductions in <span class="inline-formula">Hg</span> emissions.</p>