Find in Library
Search millions of books, articles, and more
Indexed Open Access Databases
Polar motion prediction using the combination of SSA and Copula-based analysis
oleh: Sadegh Modiri, Santiago Belda, Robert Heinkelmann, Mostafa Hoseini, José M. Ferrándiz, Harald Schuh
Format: | Article |
---|---|
Diterbitkan: | SpringerOpen 2018-07-01 |
Deskripsi
Abstract The real-time estimation of polar motion (PM) is needed for the navigation of Earth satellite and interplanetary spacecraft. However, it is impossible to have real-time information due to the complexity of the measurement model and data processing. Various prediction methods have been developed. However, the accuracy of PM prediction is still not satisfactory even for a few days in the future. Therefore, new techniques or a combination of the existing methods need to be investigated for improving the accuracy of the predicted PM. There is a well-introduced method called Copula, and we want to combine it with singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method for PM prediction. In this study, first, we model the predominant trend of PM time series using SSA. Then, the difference between PM time series and its SSA estimation is modeled using Copula-based analysis. Multiple sets of PM predictions which range between 1 and 365 days have been performed based on an IERS 08 C04 time series to assess the capability of our hybrid model. Our results illustrate that the proposed method can efficiently predict PM. The improvement in PM prediction accuracy up to 365 days in the future is found to be around 40% on average and up to 65 and 46% in terms of success rate for the $${\hbox{PM}}_{x}$$ PMx and $${\hbox{PM}}_{y}$$ PMy , respectively.