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<p>The rate of change in the marine environment over the eastern Agulhas Bank along the south coast of South Africa (32–37<span class="inline-formula">^∘</span> S, 20–30<span class="inline-formula">^∘</span> E) is studied using reanalysis observations for 1900–2015 and coupled ensemble model projections for 1980–2100. Outcomes are influenced by resolution and time span: <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 1<span class="inline-formula">^∘</span> datasets covering the whole period capture large-scale changes, while <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 0.5<span class="inline-formula">^∘</span> datasets in the satellite era better distinguish the cross-shelf gradients. Although sea surface temperatures offshore are warming rapidly (0.05 <span class="inline-formula">^∘</span>C yr<span class="inline-formula">⁻¹</span> since 1980), a trend toward easterly winds and a locally stronger Agulhas Current have intensified nearshore upwelling (<span class="inline-formula">−0.03</span> <span class="inline-formula">^∘</span>C yr<span class="inline-formula">⁻¹</span>). The subtropical ridge is gradually moving poleward, leading to a drier climate.</p>