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Reasons for the Recent Onshore Wind Capacity Factor Increase
oleh: Christopher Jung, Dirk Schindler
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | MDPI AG 2023-07-01 |
Deskripsi
Increasing wind capacity and capacity factors (<i>CF</i>) are essential for achieving the goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement. From 2010–2012 to 2018–2020, the 3-year mean <i>CF</i> of the global onshore wind turbine fleet rose from 0.22 to 0.25. Wind turbine siting, wind turbine technology, hub height, and curtailed wind energy are well-known <i>CF</i> drivers. However, the extent of these drivers for <i>CF</i> is unknown. Thus, the goal is to quantify the shares of the four drivers in <i>CF</i> development in Germany as a case. Newly developed national power curves from high-resolution wind speed models and hourly energy market data are the basis for the study. We created four scenarios, each with one driver kept constant at the 2010–2012 level, in order to quantify the share of a driver for <i>CF</i> change between 2010–2012 and 2019–2021. The results indicated that rising hub heights increased <i>CF</i> by 10.4%. Improved wind turbine technology caused 7.3% higher <i>CF</i>. However, the absolute <i>CF</i> increase amounted to only 11.9%. It is because less favorable wind turbine sites and curtailment in the later period moderated the <i>CF</i> increase by 2.1% and 3.6%, respectively. The drivers are mainly responsible for perennial <i>CF</i> development. In contrast, variations in wind resource availability drive the enormous <i>CF</i> inter-annual variability. No multi-year wind resource change was detected.