Process-oriented statistical-dynamical evaluation of LM precipitation forecasts

oleh: A. Claußnitzer, I. Langer, P. Névir, E. Reimer, U. Cubasch

Format: Article
Diterbitkan: Copernicus Publications 2008-04-01

Deskripsi

The objective of this study is the scale dependent evaluation of precipitation forecasts of the Lokal-Modell (LM) from the German Weather Service in relation to dynamical and cloud parameters. For this purpose the newly designed Dynamic State Index (<i>DSI</i>) is correlated with clouds and precipitation. The <i>DSI</i> quantitatively describes the deviation and relative distance from a stationary and adiabatic solution of the primitive equations. A case study and statistical analysis of clouds and precipitation demonstrates the availability of the <i>DSI</i> as a dynamical threshold parameter. This confirms the importance of imbalances of the atmospheric flow field, which dynamically induce the generation of rainfall.