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Examination of Changes in Flood Data in Australia
oleh: Elias Ishak, Ataur Rahman
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | MDPI AG 2019-08-01 |
Deskripsi
This study performs a simultaneous evaluation of gradual and abrupt changes in Australian annual maximum (AM) flood data using a modified Mann−Kendall and Pettitt change-point detection test. The results show that AM flood data in eastern Australia is dominated by downward trends. Depending on the significance level and study period under consideration, about 8% to 33% of stations are characterised by significant trends, where over 85% of detected significant trends are downward. Furthermore, the change-point analysis shows that the percentages of stations experiencing one abrupt change in the mean or in the direction of the trend are in the range of 8% to 33%, of which over 50% occurred in 1991, with a mode in 1995. Prominent resemblance between the monotonic trend and change-point analysis results is also noticed, in which a negative shift in the mean is observed at catchments that exhibited downward trends, and a positive shift in the mean is observed in the case of upward trends. Trend analysis of the segmented AM flood series based on their corresponding date indicates an absence of a significant trend, which may be attributed to the false detection of trends when the AM flood data are characterised by a shift in its mean.