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Knowledge about population attributes, current geographic distribution, and changes over predicted climate change for many threatened endemic vascular plants is particularly limited in arid mountain environments. <i>Primula boveana</i> is one of the rarest and threatened plants worldwide, surviving exclusively in Saint Catherine Protectorate in the Sinaic biogeographic subsector of Egypt. This study aimed to define the current state of <i>P. boveana</i> populations, predict its current potential distribution, and use the best-model outputs to guide in field sampling and to forecast its future distribution under two climate change scenarios. The MaxEnt algorithm was used by relating 10 occurrence-points with different environmental predictors (27 bioclimatic, 3 topographic, and 8 edaphic factors). At the current knowledge level, the population size of <i>P. boveana</i> consists of 796 individuals, including 137 matures, distributed in only 250 m². The Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCorA) displayed that population attributes (density, cover, size index, and plant vigor) were positively correlated with elevation, precipitation, and pH. Based on the best-fitting model, most predicted suitable central sites (69 km²) of <i>P. boveana</i> were located in the cool shaded high-elevated middle northern part of St. Catherine. Elevation, precipitation, temperature, and soil pH were the key contributors to <i>P. boveana</i> distribution in Egypt. After field trips in suitable predicted sites, we confirmed five extinct localities where <i>P. boveana</i> has been previously recorded and no new population was found. The projected map showed an upward range shift through the contraction of sites between 1800 and 2000 m and expansion towards high elevation (above 2000 m) at the southern parts of the St. Catherine area. To conserve <i>P. boveana</i>, it is recommended to initiate in situ conservation through reinforcement and reintroduction actions.