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It is well known that the JPEG compression pipeline leaves residual traces in the compressed images that are useful for forensic investigations. Through the analysis of such insights the history of a digital image can be reconstructed by means of First Quantization Estimations (FQE), often employed for the camera model identification (CMI) task. In this paper, a novel FQE technique for JPEG double compressed images is proposed which employs a mixed approach based on Machine Learning and statistical analysis. The proposed method was designed to work in the aligned case (i.e., <inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$8 \times 8$ </tex-math></inline-formula> JPEG grid is not misaligned among the various compressions) and demonstrated to be able to work effectively in different challenging scenarios (small input patches, custom quantization tables) without strong a-priori assumptions, surpassing state-of-the-art solutions. Finally, an in-depth analysis on the impact of image input sizes, dataset image resolutions, custom quantization tables and different Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) implementations was carried out.