On the prediction of the auroral westward electrojet index
oleh: O. A. Amariutei, N. Yu. Ganushkina, N. Yu. Ganushkina
| Format: | Article |
|---|---|
| Diterbitkan: | Copernicus Publications 2012-05-01 |
Deskripsi
An ARMAX based model, to forecast the evolution of the of AL index, is developed. The model has been trained and validated using neural networks with the half wave rectifier (<I>VB</I><sub>s</sub>) as input. It is shown that the model posses a good, reliable forecasting ability, including periods of intense geomagnetic activity. Prediction efficiency of the model is discussed in the context of 1 min resolution output smoothed over 7 min.