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Robust qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics
oleh: Marco Tulio Angulo, Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | Elsevier 2018-09-01 |
Deskripsi
We will inevitably face new epidemics where the lack of long time-series data and the uncertainty about the outbreak dynamics make difficult to obtain quantitative predictions. Here we present an algorithm to qualitatively infer time-varying contact rates from short time-series data, letting us predict the start, relative magnitude and decline of epidemic outbreaks. Using real time-series data of measles, dengue, and the current zika outbreak, we demonstrate our algorithm can outperform existing algorithms based on estimating reproductive numbers. Keywords: Epidemic prediction, Inference, Contact rate