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This article presents an analysis of the causes of a fatigue crack in the guide bar of a pressing device. The detailed analysis included the analysis of a material’s microstructure and its cyclic properties. Direct measurements of the strains during operation allowed the nominal loading process in the critical cross-section of the press subassembly to be obtained. The notch effect of the inner thread of the guide bar was analyzed using a precision FEM (finite element method) model and was followed by the transformation of the nominal loading into the notch root. A methodological approach was formulated based on the analyses made, which lay in the statistical interpretation of the factors leading to an identification of the cause of an early fracture.