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Information flow dynamics between geopolitical risk and major asset returns
oleh: Zaghum Umar, Ahmed Bossman, Sun-Yong Choi, Xuan Vinh Vo
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2023-01-01 |
Deskripsi
We quantify information flows between geopolitical risk (GPR) and global financial assets such as equity, bonds, and commodities, with a focus on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. We combine transfer entropy and the I-CEEMDAN framework to measure information flows at multi-term scales. Our empirical results indicate that (i) in the short term, crude oil and Russian equity show opposite responses to GPR; (ii) in the medium and long term, GPR information increases the risk in the financial market; and (iii) the efficiency of the financial asset markets can be confirmed on a long-term scale. These findings have important implications for market participants, such as investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers.