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This study analyzes the relationship between various atmospheric fields and the observed PM₁₀ concentrations in the Seoul metropolitan area, South Korea, during the winters of the 2001–2014 period to find suitable atmospheric indices for predicting high PM₁₀ episodes in the region. The analysis shows that PM₁₀ concentration in the metropolitan area is mainly affected by the intensity of horizontal ventilation and the 500 hPa high-pressure system over the Korean peninsula. The modified Korea particulate matter index (MKPI) is proposed based on a 10 m wind speed for surface ventilation and 500 hPa zonal wind for the intensity of a 500 hPa high-pressure system over the Korean peninsula. It is found that a positive MKPI value is closely correlated with the occurrence of high PM₁₀ concentration episodes, and hence, can be used as a predictor for high PM₁₀ episodes in the area. A future projection of the MKPI using two three-member general circulation model (GCM) ensembles with four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) shows that positive MKPI events and high PM₁₀ episodes are expected to increase by 5.4−16.4% depending on the SSP scenarios in the 2081−2100 period from the present-day period of 1995−2014.