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Fatigue assessment of notched parts plays imperative performance in structural integrity and reliability of major equipment. The theory of critical distance (TCD) involves determining the fatigue strength of notched parts from the linear elastic stress field surrounding the notch apex. In addition, the fatigue strength of engineering part is also size dependent. Accordingly, by coupling a plasticity reformulated TCD with the weakest link theory, this study elaborates a novel scheme for probabilistic low cycle fatigue (LCF) analysis under notch and size effects. Results of fatigue tests and complementary FE analysis with the proposed model is utilized to compute highly stressed volume (HSV). Furthermore, test data of titanium alloys TC4 (Ti-6Al-4V) and TC11 (Ti-6.5Al-3.5Mo-1.5Zr-0.3Si) as well as aluminum alloy 7075-T6 are utilized for model verification. Results specify that the model predicted P–S–N curves are in good agreement with experimental data.