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Multi-Step-Ahead Forecasting of Wave Conditions Based on a Physics-Based Machine Learning (PBML) Model for Marine Operations
oleh: Mengning Wu, Christos Stefanakos, Zhen Gao
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | MDPI AG 2020-12-01 |
Deskripsi
Short-term wave forecasts are essential for the execution of marine operations. In this paper, an efficient and reliable physics-based machine learning (PBML) model is proposed to realize the multi-step-ahead forecasting of wave conditions (e.g., significant wave height <i>H<sub>s</sub></i> and peak wave period <i>T<sub>p</sub></i>). In the model, the primary variables in physics-based wave models (i.e., the wind forcing and initial wave boundary condition) are considered as inputs. Meanwhile, a machine learning algorithm (artificial neural network, ANN) is adopted to build an implicit relation between inputs and forecasted outputs of wave conditions. The computational cost of this data-driven model is obviously much lower than that of the differential-equation based physical model. A ten-year (from 2001 to 2010) dataset of every three hours at the North Sea center was used to assess the model performance in a small domain. The result reveals high reliability for one-day-ahead <i>H<sub>s</sub></i> forecasts, while that of <i>T<sub>p</sub></i> is slightly lower due to the weaker implicit relationships between the data. Overall, the PBML model can be conceived as an efficient tool for the multi-step-ahead forecasting of wave conditions, and thus has great potential for furthering assist decision-making during the execution of marine operations.