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Bluetongue is a non-contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants and cattle that can cause severe economic losses in the livestock sector. The virus is transmitted by certain species of the genus <i>Culicoides</i> and consequently, understanding their distribution is essential to enable the identification of high-risk transmission areas. In this work we use bioclimatic and environmental variables to predict vector abundance, and estimate spatial variations in the basic reproductive ratio <inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mo> </mo><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>. The resulting estimates were combined with livestock mobility and serological data to assess the risk of Bluetongue outbreaks in Senegal. The results show an increasing abundance of <i>C. imicola</i>, <i>C. oxystoma</i>, <i>C. enderleini</i>, and <i>C. miombo</i> from north to south. <inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> < 1 for most areas of Senegal, whilst southern (Casamance) and southeastern (Kedougou and part of Tambacounda) agro-pastoral areas have the highest risk of outbreak (<inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> = 2.7 and 2.9, respectively). The next higher risk areas are in the Senegal River Valley (<inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> = 1.07), and the Atlantic coast zones. Seroprevalence rates, shown by cELISA, weren’t positively correlated with outbreak probability. Future works should include follow-up studies of competent vector abundancies and serological surveys based on the results of the risk analysis conducted here to optimize the national epidemiological surveillance system.