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<p>To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) net carbon sink from forests should increase from the current level of about <span class="inline-formula">−360</span> to <span class="inline-formula">−450</span> Mt CO<span class="inline-formula">_2eq</span> yr<span class="inline-formula">⁻¹</span> by 2050. Reaching this target requires additional efforts, which should be informed by the expected interactions between current age-class distributions, the effect of forest management practices and the expected impacts of future climate change. However, modelling the combined effect of these drivers is challenging, since it requires a mechanistic assessment of climate impacts on primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration and a detailed representation of the forest age structure and of the management practices across the entire EU. To achieve this goal, we combined the output provided by four land–climate models – run under two different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) – to parameterize the input data used in an empirical forest growth model. This hybrid modelling approach aims to quantify the impact of climate change and forest management on the long-term (i.e. to 2100) evolution of the EU27 <span class="inline-formula">+</span> UK forest carbon budget. This approach was tested using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, based on the continuation of the management practices applied by EU member states within the historical period 2000–2015. We emphasize that our study does not explore a specific policy scenario but describes a methodological framework.</p> <p>Our results highlight that, under our BAU case, the EU27 <span class="inline-formula">+</span> UK forest C sink would decrease to about <span class="inline-formula">−250</span> Mt CO<span class="inline-formula">_2eq</span> yr<span class="inline-formula">⁻¹</span> in 2050 and <span class="inline-formula">−80</span> Mt CO<span class="inline-formula">_2eq</span> yr<span class="inline-formula">⁻¹</span> by 2100. The main driver of the long-term evolution of the forest C sink is the ongoing ageing process of the European forests, mostly determined by past and ongoing management. In addition, climate change may further amplify or mitigate this trend. Due to the large uncertainty in climate projections, in 2050 the net C sink may range from <span class="inline-formula">−100</span> to <span class="inline-formula">−400</span> Mt CO<span class="inline-formula">_2eq</span> yr<span class="inline-formula">⁻¹</span> under RCP2.6 and from <span class="inline-formula">−100</span> to <span class="inline-formula">−300</span> Mt CO<span class="inline-formula">_2eq</span> yr<span class="inline-formula">⁻¹</span> under RCP6.0. These results suggest that while a change in management practices would be needed to reverse an otherwise declining trend in the sink, climate change adds a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with management.</p>