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The importance of an informed choice of CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance
oleh: A. Borella, O. Boucher, K. P. Shine, M. Stettler, K. Tanaka, K. Tanaka, R. Teoh, N. Bellouin, N. Bellouin
| Format: | Article |
|---|---|
| Diterbitkan: | Copernicus Publications 2024-09-01 |
Deskripsi
<p>One of the proposed ways to reduce the climate impact of civil aviation is rerouting aircraft to minimise the formation of warming contrails. As this strategy may increase fuel consumption, it would only be beneficial if the climate impact reduction from the avoided contrails exceeds the negative impact of any additional carbon dioxide (<span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>) emitted by the rerouted flight. In this study, we calculate the surface temperature response of almost half a million flights that crossed the North Atlantic sector in 2019 and compare it to the temperature response of hypothetical rerouted flights. The climate impacts of contrails and <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> are assessed through the perspective of <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>-equivalence metrics, represented here as nine combinations of different definitions and time horizons. We estimate that the total emitted <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> and the persistent contrails formed will have warmed the climate by 17.2 <span class="inline-formula">µK</span> in 2039, 13.7 <span class="inline-formula">µK</span> in 2069, and 14.1 <span class="inline-formula">µK</span> in 2119. Under an idealised scenario where 1 % additional carbon dioxide is enough to reroute all contrail-forming flights and avoid contrail formation completely, total warming would decrease by 4.9 (<span class="inline-formula">−</span>28 %), 2.6 (<span class="inline-formula">−</span>19 %), and 1.9 (<span class="inline-formula">−</span>13 %) <span class="inline-formula">µK</span> in 2039, 2069, and 2119, respectively. In most rerouting cases, the results based on the nine different <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>-equivalence metrics agree that rerouting leads to a climate benefit, assuming that contrails are avoided as predicted. But the size of that benefit is very dependent on the choice of <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>-equivalence metrics, contrail efficacy and <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> penalty. Sources of uncertainty not considered here could also heavily influence the perceived benefit. In about 10 % of rerouting cases, the climate damage resulting from contrail avoidance indicated by <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>-equivalence metrics integrated over a 100-year time horizon is not predicted by metrics integrated over a 20-year time horizon. This study highlights, using North Atlantic flights as a case study, the implications of the choice of <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance, but the choice of metric implies a focus on a specific climate objective, which is ultimately a political decision.</p>