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The global methane budget 2000–2012
oleh: M. Saunois, P. Bousquet, B. Poulter, A. Peregon, P. Ciais, J. G. Canadell, E. J. Dlugokencky, G. Etiope, D. Bastviken, S. Houweling, G. Janssens-Maenhout, F. N. Tubiello, S. Castaldi, R. B. Jackson, M. Alexe, V. K. Arora, D. J. Beerling, P. Bergamaschi, D. R. Blake, G. Brailsford, V. Brovkin, L. Bruhwiler, C. Crevoisier, P. Crill, K. Covey, C. Curry, C. Frankenberg, N. Gedney, L. Höglund-Isaksson, M. Ishizawa, A. Ito, F. Joos, H.-S. Kim, T. Kleinen, P. Krummel, J.-F. Lamarque, R. Langenfelds, R. Locatelli, T. Machida, S. Maksyutov, K. C. McDonald, J. Marshall, J. R. Melton, I. Morino, V. Naik, S. O'Doherty, F.-J. W. Parmentier, P. K. Patra, C. Peng, S. Peng, G. P. Peters, I. Pison, C. Prigent, R. Prinn, M. Ramonet, W. J. Riley, M. Saito, M. Santini, R. Schroeder, I. J. Simpson, R. Spahni, P. Steele, A. Takizawa, B. F. Thornton, H. Tian, Y. Tohjima, N. Viovy, A. Voulgarakis, M. van Weele, G. R. van der Werf, R. Weiss, C. Wiedinmyer, D. J. Wilton, A. Wiltshire, D. Worthy, D. Wunch, X. Xu, Y. Yoshida, B. Zhang, Z. Zhang, Q. Zhu
| Format: | Article |
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| Diterbitkan: | Copernicus Publications 2016-12-01 |
Deskripsi
The global methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH<sub>4</sub> over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH<sub>4</sub> are continuing to increase, making CH<sub>4</sub> the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH<sub>4</sub> sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH<sub>4</sub> by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (∼ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). <br><br> For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup>, range 540–568. About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50–65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup>, range 596–884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 64 % of the global budget, < 30° N) as compared to mid (∼ 32 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (∼ 58 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup>, range 51–72, −14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup>, range 73–108, +19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. <br><br> The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30–40 % on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (<a href="http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1" target="_blank">http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1</a>) and the Global Carbon Project.