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The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessments of ecological niches for trees will offer fresh perspectives for sustainable development and preservation of forests, particularly within the framework of rapid climate change. <i>Betula luminifera</i> is a fast-growing native timber plantation species in China, but the natural resources have been severely damaged. Here, a comprehensive habitat suitability model (including ten niche-based GIS modeling algorithms) was developed that integrates three types of environmental factors, namely, climatic, soil, and ultraviolet variables, to assess the species contemporary and future distribution of suitable habitats across China. Our results suggest that the habitats of <i>B. luminifera</i> generally occur in subtropical areas (about 1.52 × 10⁶ km²). However, the growth of <i>B. luminifera</i> is profoundly shaped by the nuances of its local environment, the most reasonable niche spaces are only 1.15 × 10⁶ km² when limiting ecological factors (soil and ultraviolet) are considered, generally considered as the core production region. Furthermore, it is anticipated that species-suitable habitats will decrease by 10 and 8% with climate change in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Our study provided a clear understanding of species-suitable habitat distribution and identified the reasons why other niche spaces are unsuitable in the future, which can warn against artificial cultivation and conservation planning.