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Objective: To propose a measure (index) of expected risks to evaluateand follow up the performance analysis of research projects involvingfinancial and adequate structure parameters for its development.Methods: A ranking of acceptable results regarding researchprojects with complex variables was used as an index to gauge aproject performance. In order to implement this method the ulcerindex as the basic model to accommodate the following variableswas applied: costs, high impact publication, fund raising, and patentregistry. The proposed structured analysis, named here as RoSI(Return on Scientific Investment) comprises a pipeline of analysis tocharacterize the risk based on a modeling tool that comprises multiplevariables interacting in semi-quantitatively environments. Results:This method was tested with data from three different projects in ourInstitution (projects A, B and C). Different curves reflected the ulcer indexes identifying the project that may have a minor risk (project C) related to development and expected results according to initial or full investment. Conclusion: The results showed that this model contributes significantly to the analysis of risk and planning as well as to the definition of necessary investments that consider contingency actions with benefits to the different stakeholders: the investor or donor, the project manager and the researchers.