Find in Library
Search millions of books, articles, and more
Indexed Open Access Databases
Field Implementation of Forecasting Models for Predicting Nursery Mortality in a Midwestern US Swine Production System
oleh: Edison S. Magalhaes, Danyang Zhang, Chong Wang, Pete Thomas, Cesar A. A. Moura, Derald J. Holtkamp, Giovani Trevisan, Christopher Rademacher, Gustavo S. Silva, Daniel C. L. Linhares
| Format: | Article |
|---|---|
| Diterbitkan: | MDPI AG 2023-07-01 |
Deskripsi
The performance of five forecasting models was investigated for predicting nursery mortality using the master table built for 3242 groups of pigs (~13 million animals) and 42 variables, which concerned the pre-weaning phase of production and conditions at placement in growing sites. After training and testing each model’s performance through cross-validation, the model with the best overall prediction results was the Support Vector Machine model in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE = 0.406), Mean Absolute Error (MAE = 0.284), and Coefficient of Determination (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.731). Subsequently, the forecasting performance of the SVM model was tested on a new dataset containing 72 new groups, simulating ongoing and near real-time forecasting analysis. Despite a decrease in R<sup>2</sup> values on the new dataset (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.554), the model demonstrated high accuracy (77.78%) for predicting groups with high (>5%) or low (<5%) nursery mortality. This study demonstrated the capability of forecasting models to predict the nursery mortality of commercial groups of pigs using pre-weaning information and stocking condition variables collected post-placement in nursery sites.