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Evaluation of outbreak detection performance using multi-stream syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness in rural Hubei Province, China: a temporal simulation model based on healthcare-seeking behaviors.
oleh: Yunzhou Fan, Ying Wang, Hongbo Jiang, Wenwen Yang, Miao Yu, Weirong Yan, Vinod K Diwan, Biao Xu, Hengjin Dong, Lars Palm, Shaofa Nie
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014-01-01 |
Deskripsi
<h4>Background</h4>Syndromic surveillance promotes the early detection of diseases outbreaks. Although syndromic surveillance has increased in developing countries, performance on outbreak detection, particularly in cases of multi-stream surveillance, has scarcely been evaluated in rural areas.<h4>Objective</h4>This study introduces a temporal simulation model based on healthcare-seeking behaviors to evaluate the performance of multi-stream syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness.<h4>Methods</h4>Data were obtained in six towns of rural Hubei Province, China, from April 2012 to June 2013. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model generated 27 scenarios of simulated influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks, which were converted into corresponding simulated syndromic datasets through the healthcare-behaviors model. We then superimposed converted syndromic datasets onto the baselines obtained to create the testing datasets. Outbreak performance of single-stream surveillance of clinic visit, frequency of over the counter drug purchases, school absenteeism, and multi-stream surveillance of their combinations were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and activity monitoring operation curves.<h4>Results</h4>In the six towns examined, clinic visit surveillance and school absenteeism surveillance exhibited superior performances of outbreak detection than over the counter drug purchase frequency surveillance; the performance of multi-stream surveillance was preferable to signal-stream surveillance, particularly at low specificity (Sp <90%).<h4>Conclusions</h4>The temporal simulation model based on healthcare-seeking behaviors offers an accessible method for evaluating the performance of multi-stream surveillance.