Surface networks in the Arctic may miss a future <i>methane bomb</i>

oleh: S. Wittig, S. Wittig, A. Berchet, I. Pison, M. Saunois, J.-D. Paris

Format: Article
Diterbitkan: Copernicus Publications 2024-05-01

Deskripsi

<p>The Arctic is warming up to 4 times faster than the global average, leading to significant environmental changes. Given the sensitivity of natural methane (<span class="inline-formula">CH<sub>4</sub></span>) sources to environmental conditions, increasing Arctic temperatures are expected to lead to higher <span class="inline-formula">CH<sub>4</sub></span> emissions, particularly due to permafrost thaw and the exposure of organic matter. Some estimates therefore assume the existence of an Arctic <i>methane bomb</i>, where vast <span class="inline-formula">CH<sub>4</sub></span> quantities are suddenly and rapidly released over several years. This study examines the ability of the in situ observation network to detect such events in the Arctic, a generally poorly constrained region. Using the FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle) atmospheric transport model and varying <span class="inline-formula">CH<sub>4</sub></span> emission scenarios, we found that areas with a dense observation network could detect a methane bomb occurring within 2 to 10 years. In contrast, regions with sparse coverage would need 10 to 30 years, with potential false positives in other areas.</p>