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Dynamic Modeling of Power Outages Caused by Thunderstorms
oleh: Berk A. Alpay, David Wanik, Peter Watson, Diego Cerrai, Guannan Liang, Emmanouil Anagnostou
| Format: | Article |
|---|---|
| Diterbitkan: | MDPI AG 2020-05-01 |
Deskripsi
Thunderstorms are complex weather phenomena that cause substantial power outages in a short period. This makes thunderstorm outage prediction challenging using eventwise outage prediction models (OPMs), which summarize the storm dynamics over the entire course of the storm into a limited number of parameters. We developed a new, temporally sensitive outage prediction framework designed for models to learn the hourly dynamics of thunderstorm-caused outages directly from weather forecasts. Validation of several models built on this hour-by-hour prediction framework and comparison with a baseline model show abilities to accurately report temporal and storm-wide outage characteristics, which are vital for planning utility responses to storm-caused power grid damage.