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We conducted a case-control study investigating the association between the single-nucleotide polymorphism rs2910164 in microRNA (miR)-146a and the risk and prognosis of stroke. We recruited a total of 1139 ischemic stroke patients and 1585 sex- and age-matched control subjects. After a median follow-up period of 4.5 years, 1071 of these ischemic stroke patients were then recruited for a prospective study. Our study revealed that rs2910164 was not associated with ischemic stroke incidence (odds ratio = 1.00; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.80–1.24; p = 0.985) by multivariate logistic regression. Meta-analysis of our case-control study and three others on Asian populations also suggested that there was no relationship between rs2910164 and ischemic stroke incidence. The significance of differences in long-term outcomes was examined by the log-rank test of the respective comparison groups. The prospective study showed that rs2910164 led to a 1.56-fold increased risk of stroke recurrence (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.56; 95% CI = 1.10–2.20; p = 0.013) and a 2.13-fold increased risk of death caused by cardiovascular disease or stroke (Csdeath) (HR = 2.13; 95% CI = 1.31–3.46; p = 0.002). The independent association of rs2910164 with stroke prognosis was evaluated using Cox regression models. Therefore, rs2910164 appears to be a strong predictor of stroke prognosis but not of stroke incidence in Asian populations.