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Serum erythropoietin level less than 100U/L and a transfusion requirement of less than 2 units per month are the best predictive factors for response to treatment by erythropoiesis-stimulating agents in low/int-1 myelodysplastic syndromes. To investigate the factors influencing the response to erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, we enrolled 127 low/int-1 myelodysplastic syndrome patients at diagnosis in a biological study of erythropoiesis. The 54 non-responders had a significantly lower number of burst-forming unit-erythroid and colony-forming unit-erythroid than responders. Erythropoietin-dependent proliferation and survival, and phospho (p)-ERK1/2 expression in steady state and after erythropoietin stimulation were defective in cultured erythroblasts. By flow cytometry, p-ERK1/2 was significantly lower in bone marrow CD45−/CD71+/GPA−cells from non-responders compared to responders or controls. Receiver Operator Characteristic curve analysis showed that this flow cytometry test was a sensitive biomarker for predicting the response to erythropoiesis-stimulating agents.